Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje headline an actioned packed card in Salt Lake City as UFC291 sees the return of the BMF title for the first time since its inception in 2019.

 

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Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje face each other once again this weekend, in what promises to be an all-out war at Lightweight. The highly anticipated rematch takes place at a packed-out Delta Center in Salt Lake City. Judging from the first fight, this has all the credentials to be a fight-of-the-year contender. The difference this time is that the symbolic BMF belt is up for grabs, which was first won by retired Jorge Masvidal in his TKO victory over Nate Diaz, in 2019. 

It can be rare for two fighters to meet at the perfect time, but this is definitely a case of the right person at the right time for both men. Poirier had his hand raised in their first bout, defeating Gaethje by fourth-round knockout. Poirier holds slight favouritism here, available at odds of 1.704 with his opponent at the current odds of 2.230. Their first fight took place five years ago now and have both taken similar trajectories ever since. Both fighters boast a record of 6-2 in the UFC since their first meeting, with both losses at the hands of the division champions at the time, Khabib Nurmogemedov and Charles Oliveira.

Poirier’s wins have come against Eddie Alvarez, Max Holloway, Dan Hooker, Michael Chandler, and two against Conor McGregor. On the other hand, Gaethje has defeated James Vick, Edson Barboza, Donald Cerrone, Tony Ferguson, Chandler, and Rafael Fiziev. Interestingly, Gaethje went into the Fiziev fight as the betting underdog. The Azerbaijan light, Fiziev, arrived on the back of a six-fight-win streak with the expectation he would take care of Gaethje before solidifying himself as one of the best lightweights on the planet. It was the UFC veteran though who handled his business, gritting out a majority decision in a 15-minute back-and-forth onslaught. 

The Diamond also won his last fight against Michael Chandler by round three submission. Both wins have ultimately set up this highly anticipated rematch, in what will likely be their last potential run at the lightweight title. Although anything other than an all-out war looks impossible, over 2.5 rounds at 1.813 would be my bet on this one. Gaethje is a more conservative fighter nowadays, and with the durability of both fighters, the overs are where I'd be for this one.

 

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Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira

The Co-Main event features an interesting light heavyweight match-up, between UFC veteran Blachowicz and the relatively inexperienced Alex Pereira. Pereira makes his light heavyweight debut here, jumping straight into the deep end against 40-year-old Blachowicz. The former champ has continued to perform at the top level in his latter years, clinching the title in 2020 and being the first man to defeat Adesanya in convincing fashion, back in 2021.

Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya, aka ‘Stylebender’ climbed in the weights to attempt becoming a two-weight world champion back in 2021. In his way was the Polish hammer, Jan Blachowicz. The Polish fighter was the convincing winner here, winning by a wide margin points decision. Former kickboxing champion, Alex Pereira takes on the same challenge here, after only five fights in the UFC. The Brazilian has made a huge impact since arriving in the UFC. Three out of his first four UFC bouts ended in a KO victory, with his fourth sending shockwaves throughout the middleweight division, annihilating the undefeated middleweight champ Adesanya in only his fourth UFC fight, taking home the title in the process.

The result didn’t go in the Brazilian's favour in the rematch, though, with the Stylebender taking back his title after finishing Pereira in round two. After this defeat, he publicly announced his move up to light heavyweight. He will be hoping his debut goes better than Adesanya’s, jumping straight into one of the toughest challenges at 205.  

Blachowicz claimed the vacant light heavyweight belt against Dominick Reyes at UFC 253 (in 2020). He then went on to defend the belt against Adesanya before facing and losing to fellow UFC veteran, Glover Teixeria. Teixeira then lost the title to Jiří Procházka at UFC 275. The pair were due to have a rematch which was eventually called off, due to a serious shoulder injury incurred by the champ, Procházka. The injury was so serious that he decided to vacate the belt rather than hold up the division, resulting in the Blachowicz vs Ankalaev being pushed up to the main event and for the vacant belt. The fight resulted in a draw, keeping the belt vacant. 

Now, the Polish hammer faces Pereira in what looks like a suitable decider to fight for the vacant belt, most likely against Procházka, subject to his recovery. Experts are struggling to split this one, in what looks like another extremely close matchup up. The odds narrowly favour Blachowicz, at 1.884 with Pereira marginally bigger at 1.980 to take the spoils on light heavyweight debut. 

Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green

Tony Ferguson faces Bobby Green in this lightweight contest, looking for his first UFC victory since 2019. There’s no denying Ferguson has been on the decline since his infamous 12-win streak came to an end at the hands of Justin Gaethje at UFC 249. This win streak dated back to 2013, when he defeated Mike Rio by Brabo Choke at UFC 166. There’s also little debate that Ferguson is one of the greatest lightweights we have seen, but many fans would have liked to see Ferguson retire at the top, to which Ferguson has publicly expressed his anger towards. Recently speaking to the press, he said “At this stage in my career, I’m barely hitting my prime”, pushing talks of retirement to one side. 

At odds of 4.100, Ferguson comes into this fight as the clear underdog, which isn't surprising after noting he hasn't had his hand raised since 2019. Following his defeat to Gaethje, Ferguson's landslide continued with losses to Charles Oliveira in a title bout, Beneil Darius, a vicious KO defeat to Michael Chandler and most recently to Nate Diaz. The most recent defeat to Nate Diaz was without a doubt the worst I have seen Ferguson look. In his prime, Ferguson was a vicious, unpredictable fighter with immense speed and stamina. In this fight, he looked alarmingly slower and extremely sluggish. This is no disrespect to one of the greatest lightweights we have seen though, and many UFC fans across the globe would love to see his hand raised once again. 

His opponent, Bobby Green is on a loss streak himself. Although, when you delve deeper into his three-fight winless streak, it isn’t all that it seems. Green fought lightweight champion Makhachev on short notice, losing to submission. In his next fight, he was picking Drew Dober apart before being KO’d. In his most recent fight, an unfortunate head clash resulted in a no-contest. 

Bobby Green is a strong betting favourite in this one at 1.250. I would struggle to show much confidence in Ferguson here after his showing against Nate Diaz. The overs would be favourable in this fight, because as much as Ferguson looked to have lost a large amount of his speed and flexibility, there’s not much doubt over his gas tank. Green will be slightly cautious too, with Ferguson still possessing power and perhaps his biggest strength, vicious leg kicks. Even in an arguably career-worst performance against Diaz, Ferguson was landing accurate leg kicks which was notably affecting Diaz in round three. 

It’s an interesting lightweight bout, with both men vying to end losing streaks here at the home of Utah Jazz. Below are the other fights taking place on this five-fight main card. All intriguing matchups, with a lot on the line. 

Other UFC 291 bouts on the main card: 

Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira

Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland

**Odds are subject to change. Odds accurate as of 12:00 UTC Friday 28th July**

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